The Cure for Career Confusion
Whatever career path you choose, it’s very likely that you’ll make a decision that involves an element of risk.
Risk is made up of two parts: the probability of something going wrong, and the negative consequences if it does. Risk Analysis is a process that helps you identify and manage potential problems. To carry out a Risk Analysis, take these steps:
Newton Baker was one of the most interesting men ever to serve as U.S. Secretary of War. He was an avowed pacifist when he took the post in 1916. Yet, after the United States entered World War I, Baker’s dedication, spirit and leadership won the respect of Democrats and Republications.
How could a man of such caliber conclude he’d be perfectly safe standing on the bridge of a battleship while the country’s best pilots attacked it with bombs?
Baker made an error in judgment that can happen to even the best decision-makers. Many educated people in the World War I era believed that no gnat of an airplane could sink a battleship. Worse than guessing wrong, Baker’s big mistake was holding his beliefs with utter conviction, without considering whether the available information justified the depth of that conviction. Baker knew with total – and totally unjustified – certainty that planes could not sink ships.
When Warren Harding succeeded Wilson, General Mitchell’s squadron of tiny planes demonstrated its power and promptly turned a supposedly unsinkable ship into a permanent part of the ocean floor (Don’t worry about Baker, he had returned to private citizens and a successful law practice).
Baker’s error illustrates the mistakes intelligent people can commit when they fail to evaluate carefully the information available to them. This illustrates two more decision traps:
Newton Baker was one of the most interesting men ever to serve as U.S. Secretary of War. He was an avowed pacifist when he took the post in 1916. After the United States entered World War I, Baker’s leadership won the respect of Democrats and Republicans.
How could such an accomplished and admired man conclude he’d be perfectly safe standing on the bridge of a battleship while the country’s best pilots attacked it with bombs?
Baker made an error in judgment that can happen to even the best decision-makers. Many educated people in the World War I era believed that no gnat of an airplane could sink a battleship. Worse than guessing wrong, Baker’s big mistake was holding his beliefs with utter conviction, without considering whether the available information justified the depth of that conviction. Baker knew with total – and totally unjustified – certainty that small planes could not sink large battle ships.
General Mitchell’s squadron of tiny planes, however, demonstrated its power and promptly turned a supposedly unsinkable ship into a permanent part of the ocean floor. (Don’t worry about Baker, he had returned to being a private citizen and a successful law practice).
In the previous module, I wrote a caution about relying on your intuition.
Today, I want to write a caution about relying on a spreadsheet calculation to make a critical decision.
In the previous training module, I wrote a caution about relying too heavily on emotional and gut feelings.
In this module, I want to write a caution about the opposite extreme: ignoring your gut and relying on a ‘precise’ spreadsheet calculation.
‘Listening to your gut’ is probably the most common approach to decision making. It’s the way many people make most decisions; if we used an exhaustive, complex decision-making process to decide what to eat for lunch, we’d never get anything else done.
‘Listening to your gut’ is probably the most common approach to decision-making. It’s the way many people make most decisions; if we used an exhaustive, complex decision-making process to decide what to eat for lunch, we’d never get anything else done.
Cognitive research has found that human beings are wired to make less-than-wise decisions. Science has shown our brain uses a system to simplify decisions, but these mental shortcuts often are not in our best interests. The question then becomes: How do we overcome these innate predilections and decide better?
Science has found that human beings are wired to make less-than-wise decisions. Cognitive research has shown our brain often uses a mental ‘short-cut’ system to simplify decision making, but these shortcuts often are not in our best interests. The question then becomes: How do we overcome these innate predispositions and make better decisions?
Our daily lives are the cumulative effect of hundreds of small decisions we make constantly. These decisions encompass everything from what you chose to wear today, what you’re eating for your next meal, and what you’ll watch on Netflix tonight. Generally speaking, decisions like this come fairly easily, and we rarely agonize over the small choices we constantly make throughout our daily lives.
Big and high-risk decisions, like choosing whether to accept a job offer, however, can sometimes be very difficult to make. That’s to be expected: making career decisions is an emotional process with potentially significant financial considerations to take into account, as well as your desire to do what is best for you personally and professionally.
Complex decisions, like deciding which job offer to accept, often have several shared traits: There may be many evaluation criteria (with some of them conflicting), the risks and outcomes are hard to predict, and data is unavailable or incomplete.
While there is no one “right” way to make a big decision, thankfully there are proven decision-making strategies and frameworks you can use, either individually or, more likely, in conjunction with each other.
In this training module, my goal is to give you additional knowledge, strategies and tools you can use to effectively evaluate job offers and help you choose the best one for you.
While there is no one “right” way to make a big decision, thankfully there are proven decision-making strategies and frameworks you can use, either individually or, more likely, in conjunction with each other.
Here are 10 strategies you can use to help you choose the best new job / career path for you:
Create a Career Vision Summary
Don’t Trust Your Gut (Without Testing It)